Ad-subsidized mobile video: Conclusion

So, what's the future of advertising in the mobile video market? The answer, it seems, is that it depends on who you ask.

Some players, such as ROK and OMVC members, plan to offer free services first in a bid to interest both users and advertisers. Others, such as MobiTV and GoTV, hope to transition from a subscription-only model to a tiered effort, with advertising revenues supporting that. And still others, like Qualcomm's FLO, seem content to offer a solid service in the hopes that users will pay for it.

Mark Donovan, senior analyst with research firm comScore, said the size and growth of the mobile video market indicates advertiser dollars may remain on the horizon for some time to come.

"We still see a relatively small audience for this type of content," he said, noting comScore counted 10.4 million mobile video users in February.

Further, the mobile video market lags other mobile sectors in terms of both subscribers and growth. The chart below shows the number of mobile video viewers as compared with subscribers who sent picture messages or browsed the mobile web.

Thus, advertisers will probably show more interest in other mediums that have larger user numbers and greater growth rates.

"I think the jury is still out on how big the mobile video market can get," Donovan said. "I think we're going to see the premium, paid model (for mobile video) stick around for the foreseeable future."

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