2010 Prediction No. 3: Mobile commerce will finally go mainstream

Mobile phone-based purchases surged in 2009--online auction giant eBay reported iPhone and iPod users have generated more than $400 million in mobile sales since the online marketplace introduced its iPhone application in mid-2008, with purchases including a $350,000 Lamborghini and a $150,000 boat. Retailers spanning from Amazon.com to Sears have now introduced mobile commerce applications, and consumers turned to the mobile Web in record numbers on Black Friday 2009, with mobile payments processed via PayPal up nearly 650 percent over the previous year, and mobile page views for U.S. retailers increasing an average of 388 percent, led by Best Buy (up 792 percent), Wal-Mart (740 percent) and Macy's (447 percent). Look for m-commerce to achieve critical mass in 2010, buoyed by the continued migration of retailers and financial services providers onto the mobile platform as well as the maturation of location-specific, advertiser-friendly technologies geared to targeting shoppers on the go.

What will separate the coming year from previous false starts is a far-reaching understanding that m-commerce is not simply e-commerce on a wireless device: It's something far more direct and flexible. Consumers carry their smartphones everywhere, including malls and department stores, enabling users to compare prices and scan product reviews directly at the point of sale--retailers and advertisers can capitalize by offering deals consumers can't refuse at the precise moment they're most interested in making a purchase, whether the sale is finalized in-store or in-app. While traditional mobile advertising remains a key promotional tool, mobile coupons also will explode, especially as newspapers and magazines continue to bleed subscribers. In addition, look for retailers to introduce bargains and discounts exclusive to their mobile Web sites--for example, free shipping, so-called "lightning deals" and personalized product bundles--in an effort to further stimulate smartphone-based shopping.