2010 Prediction No. 5: Olympics, World Cup fail to ignite the mobile TV revolution

Each time a major global event comes around, pundits inevitably forecast a turning point in the evolution of mobile television, and each time, it fails to materialize. The 2010 sports calendar boasts two marquee attractions with true international appeal--the Winter Olympics, taking place in Vancouver, and soccer's World Cup, to be held in South Africa--and while both will trigger a spike in mobile TV viewing during their respective broadcast schedules, neither will translate into long-term adoption. The problem is not the devices: Smartphones in landscape screen mode and connected to WiFi networks can offer an engrossing viewing experience for consumers away from their flatscreen televisions and PCs. Nor is the problem the content itself, although the panoramic sweep and methodical pacing of soccer don't necessarily adjust to the scale of the average mobile handset. The issue is the basic mobile broadcast model: Consumers have said time and again they have little interest in paying for mobile TV. Strategy Analytics--which once anticipated mobile TV revenues of $4.5 billion in 2010--now forecasts revenues will top out at $280 million this year. Viewers might tune in for a World Cup match or Olympic hockey game with massive implications for their national team, but they're not going to stick around to watch a rerun of last night's Gossip Girl.

If anything, consumers seem more interested in localized mobile TV content than mainstream programming. Almost 90 percent of mobile subscribers express interest in viewing live local news programming on the go, according to a recent mobile digital TV survey conducted by Magid Media Labs in partnership with the Open Mobile Video Coalition. Among more than 1,000 U.S. respondents ages 18 to 59 surveyed in November, 88 percent indicate interest in seeing breaking news coverage on mobile devices, followed by emergency reports (76 percent) and weather (75 percent). In addition, 65 percent of respondents say they would view some form of entertainment content on a mobile device, with 44 percent saying they would watch sports programming. Turns out that all the time mobile TV has been thinking global, it should have been acting local.