CTIA Wireless 2010 Scorecard: Applications

Whose profile is rising? Mobile VoIP

Although much of this year's CTIA Wireless hoopla centered around 4G networks and shiny new devices, several leading analysts see mobile VoIP as a much more significant--albeit subtle--trend in the wireless industry. 

"The full impact of mobile VoIP is going to take some time to emerge, and by the time it does the industry will look very different indeed," writes Anthony Cox of Juniper Research.

Mobile VoIP "has the potential for massive disruption in the market," echoes Nielsen's Roger Entner.

Seamus McAteer of Majestic Research said the development and rollout of 4G networks will hasten the mobile VoIP market, providing the speeds and latency necessary for quality IP calling. And that, Entner said, will allow users to mix and match their telecom services at will; subscribers will no longer be forced to buy minutes from one carrier for one device, but will instead be able to score voice calling from a range of providers and use those services across a bevy of devices.

Entner said to date much of the action on mobile VoIP has been only talk and little action, though that is beginning to change. Verizon Wireless launched Skype's service over a handful of smartphones last week at CTIA Wireless, and though the service works via Verizon's circuit-switched networks, users can access Skype's ultra-low-cost international calling rates (far cheaper than those offered straight from Verizon).

Further, last week was witness to the launch of a number of notable mobile VoIP applications for the iPhone. Chief among them was Line2, which scored a glowing write-up by the New York Times' David Pogue. The application highlights the potential of mobile VoIP to cut into carriers' dominance of users' calling experiences and expenses.

"Avoiding the roll of dumb-pipe must be top an operator's agenda. But it's pretty hard to achieve when a combination as powerful as the App Store and iPhone," concludes Juniper's Cox. "Unless operators reinvent themselves altogether, ultimately it is likely to be new network infrastructure like LTE (though operators will have to find the money to invest in it), and not just because of new services it creates a platform for, but because it's simpler, cheaper and more efficient to carry traffic, whatever kind of traffic it is."

Whose profile is falling? Carrier app stores

Verizon Wireless last week took the wraps off of its V Cast-branded applications storefront, and is pushing the offering initially to select BlackBerry devices. Verizon's Leroy Williams told FierceMobileContent at CTIA Wireless that the storefront will open with about 300 applications, although "that number will ramp up very quickly." He said thousands of additional applications are now awaiting testing and certification.

Williams said he was "humbled but not apologetic" in regards to the belated V Cast Apps launch (it was scheduled to go online late last year), explaining the process of building an app store proved a significant challenge but that Verizon Wireless wanted to guarantee all the pieces were in place before officially going live. "We wanted to extend and expand our relationship with our customers and the developer community, and the expectation is that we will deliver a consistent, high-quality experience," he said. "We intended to honor that expectation."

Of course, a delay to ensure quality isn't necessarily a signal of future success. Some--such as Seamus McAteer of Majestic Research--see carriers' efforts on the app store playground as troubled. "The hope that they can catch up with Apple, which has enormous reach of active users and a really attractive demographic, or Google, which is taking a totally open approach, is a forlorn one," he said. "Operators do have two things that app developers covet, however: deep pockets and what should be a seamless payment platform. They will have a place in the market, but a secondary one."

Indeed, it seems Verizon's app store play hinges on the operator's ability to bill for apps, thereby allowing users to pay for digital purchases via their wireless service bill. But carrier billing doesn't seem to have hindered the development of Apple's App Store, and the strategy comes across as a desperate effort to retain control.