ABI: 44 billion apps will be downloaded by 2016

A new ABI Research study predicts there will be 44 billion mobile application downloads by 2016 worldwide. ABI also found that Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android, as well as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows Phone 7, are catching up with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as the mobile operating systems expand their bases, further contributing to the sharp rise in mobile app downloads.

Interestingly, a year ago ABI predicted that smartphone downloads would peak at just below seven billion in 2013, a far cry from the now speculated 44 billion. The research firm says that it has changed its forecast model in the past year to take into consideration the strong growth in the past quarters.

"We have observed encouraging strong growth and expansion from various operators including Android and Blackberry, as opposed to a year ago where Apple iTunes was the dominant player and we were working with limited data. The mobile apps market has definitely expanded with lightning speed over the past one year and outperformed our analyst's expectations," said ABI Research analyst Fei Feng Seet in a statement to FierceMobileContent.

In addition, Seet attributed smartphone adoption to the strong growth in new mobile operating systems and app store operators. 

"With Nokia choosing Windows Mobile 7 over their own Symbian, we are expecting easier penetration of Nokia Smartphones in [the] future, as well as a new pool of users being exposed to both Nokia Ovi Store and Windows Mobile 7's App Store. Less fragmentation of the mobile OS is also expected to contribute to mobile app downloads growth, where Android applications can be supported on RIM's Playbook and any future QNX-based Blackberry smartphones," Seet said.

Seet added, "We are also expecting [the] penetration of smartphones and even tablets to be cutting into [the] personal computers and laptops' market, where traditional usage has been revolutionised. Users can now edit documents, play games, check on ticket prices and bus routes using apps installed on mobile devices, replacing the traditional functions of a computer. The pick-up speed from consumers have also far exceeded our expectations, hence we renewed the forecast that a 44 billion cumulative downloads in the year 2016 to better reflect the potential in mobile apps industry."

Despite the rapid growth in app downloads, app developers will not have it easy.

"Given the vast number of choices available, app developers and app stores need to innovate continually in order to maintain consumers' interest," Seet said. "For example, an app called OfferedApp promises to provide a paid app each day in exchange for users completing a simple survey or signing up for an offer with advertisers. Some apps also offer virtual currency or other premiums to consumers who download a featured app from the developer. However these new marketing tactics are likely to face opposition as iTunes starts to clamp down on such incentivized promotions when they cut into Apple's revenue from in-app sales."

For more:
- read this press release

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