Analyst maintains Flash will survive HTML5 onslaught

Despite growing concern over the longterm prospects of Adobe Systems' Flash after Apple refused to include support for the multimedia platform in its forthcoming iPad tablet device, at least one analyst believes Flash will continue to thrive within the software developer community. Frost & Sullivan analyst Mike Lee tells ZDNet Asia that Adobe's efforts to extend and enhance Flash's presence across multiple platforms will keep the runtime alive--he also said the HTML5 specification, viewed by many as the heir to Flash's crown, still faces some significant obstacles, with some browsers (including Mozilla's Firefox) failing to support the proprietary video codec H.264, which is embedded in HTML5 and commonly deployed by video sites like YouTube.

Lee also contends that while the HTML5 and Ajax languages are responsible for building more interactivity into websites, most game developers remain focused squarely on Flash.  "There is no alternative platform yet, for [creating] these interactive games other than Flash," Lee said. "Flash is a complementary technology to web standards and will continue to maintain that status." (Earlier this week, during Google CEO Eric Schmidt's keynote appearance at the 2010 Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona, the digital service giant confirmed its Android mobile operating system will feature full support for Flash  10.1 later this year.)

Apple's distaste for Flash technology is the stuff of legend: In March 2008, Apple CEO Steve Jobs contended the iPhone requires a media player more robust than the existing Flash mobile solution. That's almost complimentary compared to what Jobs reportedly had to say about Flash during a town hall meeting with Apple employees soon after the iPad premiere last month: Citing a source in attendance, Wired reports Jobs dismissed Adobe as "lazy" and added that Apple doesn't support Flash because it's so buggy. Jobs went on to blame Flash as the culprit behind most Mac crashes, and said that the platform is facing extinction as the world moves to HTML5.

Adobe marketing group manager Adrian Ludwig responded to Apple's decision to exclude Flash from the iPad by turning to the Adobe Flash Platform Blog, writing "It looks like Apple is continuing to impose restrictions on their devices that limit both content publishers and consumers. Unlike many other ebook readers using the ePub file format, consumers will not be able to access ePub content with Apple's DRM technology on devices made by other manufacturers. And without Flash support, iPad users will not be able to access the full range of web content, including over 70 percent of games and 75 percent of video on the web. If I want to use the iPad to connect to Disney, Hulu, Miniclip, Farmville, ESPN, Kongregate or JibJab--not to mention the millions of other sites on the web--I'll be out of luck." Adobe says in the second quarter it will release Packager for iPhone, enabling application developers to adapt their Flash-based efforts for both the iPhone and the iPad.

For more on Flash's future:
- read this ZDNet Asia article