Android Market doubles--trouble for Apple?

Google's Android Market application storefront unofficially surpassed the 20,000 app benchmark this week, according to analytics provider AndroLib.com. The number may not seem particularly impressive in comparison to Apple's App Store, which now boasts close to 118,000 total iPhone and iPod touch applications based on the latest count supplied by mobile ad exchange Mobclix. But consider that Android Market only reached the 10,000 application milestone in early September, almost a year after its October 2008 launch--by contrast, the store added the next 10,000 apps in under four months. The leap supports an earlier report issued by in-application analytics provider Flurry stating that Android software project starts increased 94 percent between September and October, a period coinciding with the announcement that Verizon Wireless would release Motorola's Droid smartphone, and makes it clear that developers are betting big on Android's future.

Those bets are poised to pay off handsomely in the years ahead according to a new forecast issued by ABI Research, which anticipates application downloads to reach five billion by 2014, up from an estimated 2.3 billion downloads in 2009. While ABI believes the iPhone will remain the leading platform for mobile apps, the forecast declares Android will benefit most from the upcoming boom, increasing from 11 percent of total application downloads this year to 23 percent five years from now. Chalk up the growth to the continued expansion of the Android OS--there are presently 14 smartphones running on Android, and a flood of additional devices are expected in 2010. (Chief among them: Google's rumored branded Android phone, the Nexus One, reportedly slated to drop early next year.)

Despite Android's recent growth spurt, expect Apple to remain out in front for the foreseeable future--according to Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, "Apple has a two- or three-year lead" over its mobile competition. This week, the investment firm released its Mobile Internet Report, the 424-page sequel to its influential 1995 Internet Report, considered the bible of the dot-com era in many quarters. Morgan Stanley projects more consumers will access the Internet via mobile devices than PCs within five years, with Apple in the "pole position." The study notes that as of now, iPhone users generate 65 percent of the world's mobile web browsing and 50 percent of its app usage, despite representing just 17 percent of the global smartphone installed base--at least for the time being, the Android platform lags far behind, making up 8 percent of mobile browsing along with 11 percent of app usage.

But while the Morgan Stanley report concedes Apple is leading in mobile innovation and impact "for now," it argues that the depth of each app ecosystem, user experience and pricing will ultimately determine the long-term winners, adding "Newcomer Android has quickly surpassed the old guard." In other words, let's not crown Apple just yet--its lead is sizable, but for the first time, the company should be looking over its shoulder. -Jason