Forecast: App store downloads to top 25 billion by 2015

The annual number of consumer-oriented application downloads from dedicated app stores is expected to increase from fewer than 2.6 billion in 2009 to more than 25 billion in 2015, according to a new forecast issued by Juniper Forecast. Citing the emergence of new operator storefronts modeled on Apple's breakout App Store, Juniper also credits coming growth to the increased popularity of more established stores like independent GetJar, which topped the 1 billion download benchmark earlier this month.

Juniper cautions fledgling app stores must demonstrate sufficient scale in order to persuade developers to supply them with unique content. "Apple has been able to achieve several billion downloads from a comparatively small handset base because customers are buying the iPhone for the apps. That's not been the case with other handsets," said report author Dr. Windsor Holden in a prepared statement. "So even if you have a subscriber base of tens of millions, your addressable market is a fraction of that--and spread across a variety of operating systems and handsets."

Juniper adds that freemium applications are fast becoming the prevalent business model. A growing percentage of publishers and developers are now offering applications free at point of sale, relying on monetization via in-app billing of subscription-based services, upgrades to premium content or micropayments for virtual items.

For more on the Juniper Research report:
- read this release

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