Forecast: Mobile data revenues will top $100B by 2017

Mobile data revenues will increase by a compound annual growth rate of 16 percent from $24 billion in 2007 to over $100 billion in 2017 according to a new forecast issued by financial intelligence firm SNL Kagan, which cites the recent launch of Apple's iPhone 3G and other new smartphones as the catalyst behind the expected surge. SNL Kagan's mobile data revenue expectations contrast sharply with the firm's forecast that total wireless service revenues will experience barely a 5 percent CAGR over the same timeframe--its estimates show average data subscribers growing at a CAGR of 5.8 percent to 249.5 million by 2017, comprising 77 percent of the total wireless subscriber base. During the same period, wireless subscriber totals will grow an average of only 2.9 percent per year.

SNL Kagan expects wireless subscribers to reach 90 percent per capita penetration by 2017, meaning new data services will emerge as the primary driver of revenue growth as market saturation nears--while 62 percent of all subscribers will embrace messaging and mobile e-mail by 2017, mobile web users will grow from 18 percent of subscribers in 2007 to 52 percent of subscribers in 2017. SNL Kagan expects mobile video and TV to experience a 10-year GAGR of 22.5 percent, followed by mobile music at 13.1 percent CAGR and mobile gaming at 12.7 percent CAGR. The forecast cites handset compatibility with the ATSC-MH mobile broadcast standard as a major impetus behind the expected TV/video uptake.

For more on the SNL Kagan forecast:
- read this release

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