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Forecast: One in six users to own NFC-enabled phones by 2014
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One in every six mobile subscribers worldwide will own a device enabled with Near Field Communications capabilities by 2014 according to a new forecast issued by market analysis firm Juniper Research. While NFC adoption and mobile payment services are currently limited primarily to the Far East, Juniper anticipates high growth in both North America and Western Europe over the next five years, adding global gross transaction value will exceed $110 billion by 2014. Moreover, Juniper believes retailing ARPU from NFC coupons and smart posters will exceed ARPU from NFC payment transactions by the end of the forecast period.
"Our research found that both the business model and the rollout of [point of sale] NFC readers at merchant locations are issues that need solving--depending on the country," said report author Howard Wilcox in a prepared statement. "As these are overcome NFC is poised to enter an operational build up phase culminating in mass service rollouts across many countries, typically in metro areas driven by transport ticketing."
For more on the NFC forecast:
- read this release
Comments
Posted by Giff Gfroerer, i2SMS | November 9, 2009 - 12:31pm
Very Doubtful. What, Nokia currenly has two, that is 2, NFC phones! Who else has one? So maybe there are 3 or 4 phones worldwide currently NFC enabled? Out of what, 2000 phones?
One in 6 within 5 years? There are 4.3 billion subscribers worldwide with 3.4 billion being unique. We will be nearing 6 billion cell subscribers by 2014. Is this study telling us that within 5 years there will be 1 billion NFC phones?
Why? Why a hardware solution when software can handle the load? What cell manufacturers are going to pay to have the chip in the phone? What carriers are going to pay to push it? What subscriber wants to pay to have it in the phone?
NFC has been the rage since 2004. It has not caught on over the past 5 years. Why then, will it over the next 5 years? One in six within five years? Very Doubtful...
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