GetJar forecasts 100,000 mobile apps by end of 2009

Consumers will have their choice of about 100,000 mobile applications by year's end according to Ilja Laurs, CEO of independent app portal GetJar. "Apps will be as big if not bigger than the Internet," Laurs said last week during the MobileBeat event in San Francisco. "They will peak at around 100,000 by the end of the year. That will be a tipping point and after that there will be a gradual fall in the rate of development." Last week, Apple reported that its App Store now offers more than 65,000 applications for the iPhone and iPod touch.

Laurs forecasts that the total number of mobile applications will grow to 10 million in 2020:  "The full blossom will come in 10 years and mobile apps will become as popular as websites are today with consumers." However, he maintains the economics of the mobile marketplace will force many developers to move on to other opportunities. "The reality is that this space is only so big and only able to support so many people. Unfortunately the overhype that goes with the App Store is what has driven so many to rush to develop for the market. It is fashionable to do apps and every media outlet tells you apps are cool. But the economics are a different story. The ratio of those developers who will fail is about 90 percent--they will simply not make a return on their investment or make a good enough living at this."

Lee Williams, executive director of the non-profit Symbian Foundation, told the MobileBeat audience the future portends more utilitarian, practical applications. "The App Store is flawed--right now it is just a bucket of apps," Williams said. "You need to get beyond that bucket and give the consumer the opportunity to wander down a really relevant aisle of content and applications that they can get access to. When this problem is solved, the type of application you will see will be about more than an iBeer drinking app or a candle that flickers in different colors. The type of application you will see will help enrich your life in some way. It will let you do your image sharing, your social networking and establish presence with your friends, colleagues and family in completely new ways-- which is really what mobile applications are all about."

More on the MobileBeat event:
- read this BBC News article

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