Hollywood strikes back

Between the European Commission mandating the DVB-H standard for EU deployments, HiWire announcing an impressive programming slate for its Las Vegas trial and Verizon Wireless partnering with Veoh for a broadcast triple play, it was an interesting and busy week for the mobile TV market. But even the most promising headlines are tempered by the absence of positive news out of Hollywood. On Monday, the Writers Guild of America, film studios and television networks converged to begin what by all accounts loom as knock-down, drag-out negotiations to determine the scribes' cut of revenues from new-media platforms.

Long story short, the writers say they deserve their fair share of income derived from webisodes, mobisodes and other fledgling scripted formats. Execs counter they must first revise the residuals system to recoup their investments before cutting in anyone else on digital revenues. With the film and television suits scrambling to combat accelerating costs, shrinking audiences and nose-diving profits, their best offer is a contract extension, topped off by a concurrent study to install a residuals program amenable to both factions. The WGA is balking, and Hollywood insiders say the two sides are so far apart that any kind of imminent resolution is as unlikely as a sequel to Battlefield Earth.

The current WGA contract expires Oct. 31, and history suggests the writers probably won't go on strike come Nov. 1. Three years ago, WGA leaders instructed guild members to continue working under the terms of their expired contract while negotiations dragged on. But last time, the writers didn't get the improved DVD residuals they wanted, either--then-WGA executive director John McLean even lost his job as a result. Further muddying the Pellegrino, executives want both the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild of America to sign proposals similar to what they're currently offering the writers. Both the SAG and DGA contracts expire June 30, 2008.

The last time the WGA went on strike, in 1988, the damage was severe--during five long months of bitter negotiations, the new fall television season was delayed, and estimated losses totaled into the hundreds of millions. Nineteen years later, with so many new media platforms--and so many more rivals for viewers' time, attention and disposable income--the long-term effects are far more ominous.

As studios and networks continue ramping up their made-for-mobile efforts, the question is not only who will script content for the mobile platform should a writers' strike force production to a halt, but where wireless handsets will fit in the big picture as content providers scramble to fill cineplexes and traditional television schedules once production resumes. Sure, providers can simply re-format content for the mobile screen in the interim--it's already standard practice for many--but doing so for an extended period across the board will cement in many viewers' minds the impression that their handsets are little more than a dumping ground for reruns and leftovers.

The potential of mobile broadcasting is its blessing and its curse. If both the writers and the producers didn't envision a bright future for mobile TV, they wouldn't fight so ferociously for their slice of the pie. But unlike more established programming platforms that can survive a prolonged strike with limited long-term damage, mobile is too new and too undefined. The longer Hollywood fights for mobile TV revenues, the less chance there will be anything worth fighting for. - Jason