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IDC: Android, Windows Phone to lead smartphone market in 2015

June 10, 2011 — 8:37am ET | By Jason Ankeny

Vendors will ship 472 million smartphones in 2011, up from 305 million a year ago, IDC forecasts, adding that the smartphone market will grow more than four times the rate of the overall worldwide mobile phone market this year--the firm credits a decline in average selling prices, increased phone functionality and lower-cost data plans among factors driving consumer demand. By 2015, smartphone unit shipments will increase to 982 million, buoyed by accelerating adoption in emerging markets.

IDC anticipates Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android mobile operating system will grow to control more than 40 percent of the global smartphone market by the end of 2011 and reach 43.8 percent market share by 2015. Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows Phone, which is replacing Symbian as Nokia's (NYSE:NOK) primary smartphone OS, will command just 3.8 percent of the market as 2011 but will rise to 20.3 percent by 2015--conversely, Symbian will erode from 20.6 percent at the end of this year to a mere 0.1 percent by the conclusion of the forecast period.

Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iOS will represent 18.2 percent of the worldwide smartphone market as 2011 ends, and IDC projects it will make up 16.9 percent by 2015. Research In Motion's (NASDAQ:RIMM) BlackBerry is next with 14.2 percent in 2011 and 13.4 percent in 2015. IDC notes that while both iOS and BlackBerry will experience declines in overall market share, shipment volumes will increase throughout the forecast period.

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