iPhone 3G S weekend sales forecast to top 500,000

With the new iPhone 3G S scheduled to go on sale at 7 a.m. Friday at Apple retail stores across the globe, Piper Jaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster anticipates the latest version of the touchscreen device will sell 500,000 units in its first weekend. That's about half as many units as Apple moved the weekend of July 11, 2008, when the iPhone 3G first hit retail--however, Munster notes that the 3G went on sale in 21 international markets, while the 3G S will launch in just eight. Nevertheless, sales of 500,000 would double sales of the original iPhone model back in late June 2007--by comparison, Palm's much-anticipated Pre smartphone sold an estimated 50,000 units in its first two days of retail availability.

Munster believes the iPhone 3G S heralds a "less dramatic change in value proposition" than earlier editions of the device. "In 2008, Apple introduced the iPhone 3G at $199, a 50 percent reduction from the previous model, which drove demand up significantly," he writes. "Most customers will be able to purchase the new iPhone 3G S for $199 (the same price as the previous model). As such, the change in value proposition for the iPhone 3G S is not as meaningful as it was for the iPhone 3G, leading to less of a surge in units at launch."

Citing proprietary research from RBC/ChangeWave, RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky nevertheless contends there is pent-up consumer demand for both the iPhone 3G S and the discounted 3G model, noting that 44 percent of 4,100 smartphone buyers surveyed in June said they were interested in purchasing an iPhone in the next 90 days, up from 30 percent in March. Abramsky believes Apple will ship between 500,000 and 700,000 iPhone 3G S units this weekend.

Apple released its iPhone OS 3.0 software update Wednesday. Geek.com reports Apple's activation servers struggled to keep up with consumer demand, at times rendering both the desktop iTunes portal and the App Store incapable of downloading the update.

For more on the iPhone 3G S sales forecast:
- read this Apple 2.0 article