What's Hot or Not in the Mobile Content Industry for 2008

It's difficult to envision the mobile content sector experiencing another year as radically transformative as 2007, but 2008 promises to re-redefine the balance of power. The new year continues where the previous one left off, with operators, software giants, Internet kingpins and device makers all waging battle to win control over platforms and business models alike. Mobile handsets are more potent and tricked out than ever before, but conventional multimedia linchpins like music, video and gaming are still stagnant, with both carriers and content providers pinning their hopes on ad-subsidized programming to drive adoption. In the meantime, consumers are staking out a mobile experience defined not by passive entertainment but by proactive engagement--messaging and social networking continue to capture the imagination of subscribers regardless of age, while mobility tools like search, shopping and banking exemplify the possibilities of true wireless living. Read on for what's hot and what's not in mobile content in 2008--fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride. - Jason

Hot: Mobile Advertising
So confident is Google in the potential of mobile advertising that the Internet giant staked its wireless future on ad revenues--its much-ballyhooed open-source mobile platform Android effectively turns upside down the conventional wireless business model, giving away software and services in exchange for income derived from advertising efforts. As location-based search, sponsored content, idle-screen pitches and related mobile marketing initiatives grow in scope and reach--and as targeted, contextual campaigns slowly but surely become the norm--forward-thinking operators will be forced to give serious consideration to embracing advertising-based consumer models alongside traditional subscription-based services.

Hot: Live Mobile TV
Forget repurposed, on-demand series and clips, let alone original mobisode content--thanks to the ongoing Writers Guild of America strike, that ship has sailed. But live mobile TV programming will become more prominent than ever in 2008. Sports will remain the linchpin of live mobile content both at home and abroad--already the NFL, NCAA football and the NBA are staples on U.S. handsets, while overseas, operators are counting on the Beijing Summer Olympics and soccer's UEFA Euro 2008 Championship to drive subscriber uptake. But 2008 is also shaping up as a pivotal and likely tumultuous year in politics and finance, highlighted by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and mobile is now the platform best positioned to deliver breaking news wherever and whenever it happens.

Hot: Mobile Banking
By the end of 2007, Bank of America--the world's second largest banking corporation--counted more than 500,000 active mobile banking customers, despite introducing mobile services just six months earlier. To paraphrase Snoop Dogg, consumers have their mind on their money and their money on their mind, so it's no surprise that mobile banking is quickly approaching mainstream status. A recent report issued by market research firm TowerGroup forecasts that mobile banking services will soar from 1.1 million consumers in 2007 to 40.9 million by 2012, and for once it seems like such lofty projections are justified--after all, if the mobile experience indeed hinges on brief snacking interludes, it certainly seems much more productive to spend five minutes checking account balances, transferring cash and paying bills rather than playing games or watching YouTube clips.

Not: The Walled Garden
Weeks after Google introduced Android in tandem with its Open Handset Alliance industry coalition, Verizon Wireless closed out 2007 with a bombshell: In the year ahead, it will open its network and enable subscribers to use devices, software and applications not otherwise offered by the operator. At first blush, Verizon is effectively ceding control over the mobile experience, enabling subscribers to call their own shots and embrace whatever off-deck content and services they choose. It may seem like a huge gamble, but freedom isn't free, and with the demise of the walled garden will come a sharp decrease in handset subsidies, guaranteeing consumers will pay handsomely for their newfound independence.

Not: DRM

Following Warner Music Group's late December announcement that it will begin selling DRM-free MP3 downloads via Amazon.com, Sony BMG stands alone as the sole major label still clinging to digital rights management protections. In an e-mail to staffers, WMG head Edgar Bronfman Jr. wrote "We have concluded that both the development and growth of the online store environment are being hampered by the handcuffs which today's inflexible, non-interoperable copy-protection puts on both retailers and consumers…By providing an immediate interoperable solution to retail partners who are committed to working with us to deliver new and more robust music-based experiences, we'll encourage more consumption of existing products while introducing consumers to new and better ones." Once Sony BMG inevitably bows to the pressure and DRM becomes as irrelevant as R.E.M., Apple's stranglehold over the digital music marketplace will face its first serious threats--expect a price war with Amazon as well as increased competition from rival service providers like eMusic and RealNetworks.