Is mobile data facing a downturn?

It's Halloween--what better time to chew on the frightening future of mobile data revenues? Sure, life is sweet right now: Last week, AT&T posted third quarter earnings of $3.2 billion, with postpaid wireless subscriber ARPU up 2.6 percent year-over-year to $58.99 and mobile data revenues growing 50.5 percent over Q3 2007, buoyed by increases in mobile web access, messaging, email and related services. And earlier this week, Verizon Communications reported its own third quarter results, posting net income of $1.67 billion--its Verizon Wireless unit reported ARPU increased year-over-year for the 10th consecutive quarter, growing to $52.18 thanks in large part to a 42.5 percent spike in data revenues. According to Verizon, subscribers sent or received more than 80 billion text messages during the third quarter, additionally transmitting 1.5 billion picture/video messages. Customers also completed 43 million music and video downloads.

But a new consumer study suggests the momentum can't continue. According to research issued by mobile applications portal GetJar, mobile subscribers worldwide are putting off upgrading or purchasing new handsets as economic crisis looms--as many as 78 percent of subscribers are delaying plans to acquire new phones, GetJar reports, and 76 percent are preparing to reduce the amount they spend on phone usage. Among consumers who have already begun cutting costs within the past 12 months, 20 percent altered their usage habits to lower expenses and 28 percent switched over to free applications to avoid charges. GetJar notes that text messaging currently accounts for the largest percentage of mobile services spending--35 percent of respondents cited SMS as their biggest monthly expense, with 18.5 percent pointing to voice services and roughly 17 percent identifying data services.

It seems safe to assume messaging revenues aren't going to decline too much, if at all: Subscribers of all ages have become dependent on SMS to the point where some are virtually addicted to texting, at least according to a recent Osterman Research survey. Still, as customers shelve their plans to move up to more multimedia-friendly smartphones, and trim the fat from their monthly expenses, you can bet subscription services like mobile TV and mobile music are going to suffer. The question of which mobile services will continue to drive operator revenues even in the face of global financial meltdown is the subject of "Back to Basics: Winning Mobile Apps for Today's Economy," a Fierce Live! webinar taking place at 11 a.m. ET, Nov. 18. I'll be moderating the event--click here to register. -Jason