Mobile media firms cautiously optimistic about 2010

How time flies. The Mobile Entertainment Forum turns 10 years old in 2010--the perfect opportunity for the industry organization to take stock of its past, present and future with the release of a new MEF Americas study examining the state of the U.S. mobile content value chain. Despite lingering uncertainty over new business models, declining revenues generated by some existing services and the global economic downturn, the outlook is mostly positive, the MEF reports: Among 100 respondents from 80 companies spanning across the mobile entertainment landscape, 42 percent said they expect at least a 20 percent revenue increase in 2009, and 58 percent anticipate comparable revenue growth in the year ahead.

Seems like a realistic assessment of the marketplace--and reality is the whole point of the survey, according to MEF Americas chairman Jim Beddows. "The study came out of a request from some of our members over their frustration with published reports and research papers projecting the growth of this industry--projections which may or may not pan out," Beddows said in an interview with FierceMobileContent. "Our member base requested that we go out and get some real insight into what's growing, what isn't and what's stagnant. The intent of the study was to take a snapshot to see how the value chain is truly evolving."

What's evolving is off-deck aggregation--among the seven dominant mobile media industry segments identified (application development, content publishing, content provisioning and content ownership also among them), off-deck aggregators are the most positive about their 2009 results, with 59 percent expecting revenue growth of 20 percent or more, followed by content provisioning companies at 48 percent. Content owners are least optimistic, with just 39 percent anticipating a revenue increase greater than 20 percent. Looking at 2010, 71 percent of content provisioning firms forecast revenue growth topping 20 percent--somewhat surprisingly, app developers are the most pessimistic, with only 48 percent believing revenues will increase 20 percent or more this year.

"A lot of content owners were expecting advertising to monetize their business, so they might not be seeing the projections they thought they might," Beddows said. "That's why we need to provide all the participants in the value chain with multiple ways to monetize their content. We need to give them a repertoire of things that work." As for developer skepticism, Beddows theorizes there's still some question over the longterm viability of current marketplace conditions: "The explosion of app stores and applications continues to feed consumer demand, but it's still not proven whether there's a sustainable revenue model," he said.

And while it's no surprise that 75 percent of respondents tell the MEF that increasing handset penetration is the number one factor correlating with the growth of their business, it's also the most promising takeaway from the survey--with a recent Gartner forecast projecting the combined installed base of smartphones and browser-equipped enhanced phones will snowball to 1.82 billion units worldwide by 2013, mobile media is still on the upswing. The question isn't if the industry will mature, just how. "This survey captures a value chain in flux," Beddows said. "When everything is said and done, mobile media continues to grow and expand--it might not be how we projected, but at the end of the day, the mobile phone is still the most personal device we have, and it is cannibalizing other media forms." -Jason

P.S. FierceMobileContent will not publish Monday, Jan. 18 in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We'll see you back here on Tuesday.