Seybold's Take: Developers need realistic view of LTE data speeds

As Verizon begins to roll out its next-generation or LTE network in major cities across the United States, many developers are looking at the new data speeds that will be available soon and equating that to higher bandwidth applications. If you've been reading the news, you have seen some incredible claims for LTE (but not from Verizon or AT&T). Each week there are press releases from network infrastructure companies claiming they have completed a 50 Mbps or 100 Mbps "call" over an LTE network that is in beta test. Don't be fooled by these claims.

The reality is that Verizon has stated it believes it will be able to deliver 15 Mbps down to devices and somewhere in the low to mid, single-digit Mbps speeds from the device back to the network. Verizon tends to be one of the most conscientious, realistic network operators when it comes to setting expectations for data speeds and capacities. Further, it is important to understand that these data speeds will not be available to everyone all of the time. A cell sector is a 120-degree pie-slice shaped coverage area emanating from the cell out to the edge of the cell and it usually covers an area of a few miles. Each cell sector will offer the same data speeds and capacity, but speeds and capacity are shared among all customers within the cell sector.

If you are the only LTE user in a given cell sector, you will have access to all of the available bandwidth and speed. However, if you are in a cell sector with many users, you will be sharing the total available speed and capacity with all of the other users. If you are surfing the Web, sending and receiving email, or running other light data applications and the rest of the people within the cell sector are doing the same, data speeds will continue to be very good. But if some of the people are receiving streaming video or sending large files, there will be less capacity available to you. This is true with all wireless data systems including 2G, 3G, 3.5G, WiMAX, and LTE systems.

Since it will take time to build this new generation of networks, some say three years and others say longer, most of the devices on these networks will have to fall back to 3G or slower speeds for the foreseeable future. On some networks, data speeds will vary from 100 Kbps to 15 Mbps depending on the location of the device. Therefore, it is important that applications be as light on data usage as possible and designed to function acceptably at the lowest possible data rate-which will make them appear to be super fast when the device is within the higher-speed network's coverage.

It is possible, and desirable, to write applications that are aware of the data speed of the network and limit the amount of data sent and received based on network speed and capacity. Other ways to write data-speed-aware applications are to monitor the data speed and recommend that users defer large file downloads or streaming video content until they are back in faster coverage or until 2 a.m. when the networks are not as congested as they are during the day and evening hours.

We have already seen a 5000 percent increase in the demand for wireless broadband services over the last two years and every indication is that demand will continue to grow. We have heard the stories of data network congestion in major metropolitan areas because of data hogs who are estimated to be less than 10 percent of the user population but who consume more than 50 percent of a network's data capacity.

Building great applications that are in demand means more than simply thinking about the type of application you want to offer and building a world-class app. It also means providing your customer base with a good user experience no matter what the data capabilities are over a wireless network at any given time. Caching information in the background, anticipating the next request for information, and knowing the data speed available at any given time will help you build applications that will perform more consistently over all of the data speeds we will have to contend with for at least the next three to five years.

In addition to faster data speeds and more network capacity, another "hot" topic has to do with cloud computing. The object is, of course, to keep your data, and in some cases, your applications, in the cloud and not on the device. Access is available anytime you have a connection to the Internet. While there are some who wholeheartedly believe that cloud computing is the future, I am more conservative and recognize that we still live in an always on, SOMETIMES connected world. While it is true that we are connected more of the time than even five years ago, there are still times when we are out of coverage or in a location where Internet access is not available.

My advice to developers is that while cloud computing sounds like a great way to go, and certainly makes sense since it enables us to access applications and data from many different types of devices, there continues to be a need for local storage for times when we are not connected. The example I use is boarding an airplane, planning to work during the flight, and finding that I don't have the project I need with me. It is in the cloud and I did not download it onto my device. In this instance, having my data inaccessible only serves to put me further behind the curve.

The bottom line is that with both wireless broadband and cloud computing, it might sound like we will have unlimited speeds and access to remote computing capabilities. However, the reality is that we still need to carry self-contained devices and be able to use them productively regardless of the speed of data connections.

Andrew M. Seybold is an authority on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. A respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author and active participant in industry trade organizations, his views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for telecom, mobile computing and wireless industry leaders worldwide. www.andrewseybold.com.