Seybold's Take: Will all mobile business apps reside in the cloud?

In the July 27 issue of FierceMobileContent, I wrote an article "iPad business applications still lacking" about the iPad not being a business-friendly device, but I failed to mention that the internal keyboard is not email-friendly either. Since then, Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility, has stated that he expects to see lots of good business software available for tablet devices. However, his comments were based on his belief that these new business applications will be mostly cloud-based and, therefore, not able to be behind a corporate firewall and protected by the company.

Many believe that the future of applications lies in the cloud and that all of our applications and files will eventually reside in the cloud, just waiting for us to sign on from any machine we are near and use them from any location in the world. This is a really great concept but the caveats, which are many, are rarely discussed.

For example, in the wireless world we live in an always on and sometimes connected world. Although wireless connectivity is better than it has ever been, there continue to be times when we are out of range of a wireless system, with no WiFi around, or WiFi that requires us to sign up and pay for a few hours of service. In-building coverage is a challenge around the world, and while it will improve with more WiFi and various types of in-building systems, it will be problematical for a long time. Further, since wireless data services are shared services in areas of high population concentration such as a gate at an airport, data rates are liable to be slower than you would expect.

Add to this the fact that data traffic is growing on both the wired and wireless networks at a pace that is faster than a network operator's ability to build out more capacity, whether for the Internet in general or for a wireless broadband system. I also contend that the wired Internet is not a mission-critical network and have had numerous discussions about this. I continue to be amazed at how many people simply assume that it will always be there, it will always work, and there will always be capacity available for whatever we want to do. The truth is that today the demand for Internet data is growing faster than Internet capacity.

All of this and more gives me pause when it comes to truly trusting the cloud with my applications and data. Experience has taught me that when I most need a connection I won't have it (this falls under Murphy's Law). Further, no matter how much pre-planning I do, the one application or data file I really need when I am on a plane for hours at a time will still be in the cloud and not on my device. So by now I have shown, once again, that I am simply an older guy who is not in touch with today's technologies and does not embrace the future.

Let me respond that, yes, I have been around data services for a very long time, and yes, I used mobile phones before cellular, wireless email since 1990, and packet-data systems with data rates of 8 Kbps. I have watched the data industry blossom, and now really take off, and I have watched many ideas hyped, take longer to be developed than those promoting them believe they will, and watched others fade into the sunset never to be heard from again (or at least for a few years until they are reincarnated yet again).

Mr. de la Vega is correct. As more tablets make their way into the market, there will be demand for new and better business applications. I hope many of them will reside on the tablet and not in the cloud. The rumored Dell tablet is supposed to be based on Qualcomm's Snapdragon, and others I am hearing about will all have onboard solid-state memory that will limit the number and variety of applications that can be used, but there is enough storage available for a full suite of business-related applications, some games, eBooks and photos.

Since my July 27 column on iPad business applications, I have talked to many iDevelopers about the different types of applications that are needed, so I know that serious work is being done on a number of them. Business customers really want to use tablets and they really want to leave their laptops behind when they travel, but it will be up to the developer community to make that possible.

Andrew M. Seybold is an authority on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. A respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author and active participant in industry trade organizations, his views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for telecom, mobile computing and wireless industry leaders worldwide. www.andrewseybold.com.  Join Seybold Oct. 5 for Andrew Seybold University a one-day session held in San Francisco in conjunction with the CTIA Wireless Enterprise & Applications conference. Register here.