U.S. mobile usage to exceed 100% by 2013

A new study released by financial intelligence firm SNL Kagan forecasts that U.S. mobile phone penetration will extend to 84 percent of the consumer and business population by the end of 2007, growing past 100 percent by 2013. SNL Kagan's projections anticipate increasing data use which may be accelerated by advertising subsidies similar to those now in trial by Google and YouTube. The study also predicts total industry ARPU will grow at an inflation-paced compound annual growth rate of 1.5 percent over the next decade from $52.38 today to $61.09 by 2017; data ARPU, which grew 45 percent from the first quarter of 2006 to Q1 of 2007, is forecast to grow from $5.92 to $8.58 over the next 10 years.

"If carriers can hold onto their position in the revenue chain, data is poised to give them a second growth spurt," said Sharon Armbrust, SNL Kagan senior analyst. "While subscriber units and voice revenue will inch along, we expect data revenue to grow at a compound annual 14 percent rate over the next 10 years, rising to at least 22 percent of service revenue, compared to under 10 percent today."

For more on the SNL Kagan forecast:
- read this release

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