Will mobile video be the next big thing?

Will mobile video be the next big thing?

By Andrew Seybold

Welcome to my first column for FierceMobileContent. I have been writing a monthly column for FierceWireless for more than a year and have enjoyed the experience and the feedback I get from readers. I hope you will enjoy these columns as much as I enjoy writing them. If you want to see what you are in for, visit www.fiercewireless.com and search on my last name to see the types of things I have written about for FierceWireless, or go to our website www.andrewseybold.com and read my blog and COMMENTARY. You will notice that my blog is called "Tell It Like It Is" and there is a reason for this--I do tell it like it is, not how people want it to be. My company provides consulting services, educational sessions and articles, but I can tell you that our clients understand when they sign up for our services that even they are not protected if they do something that does not make sense to me. Those who know my style know that I tend to be pragmatic and I have no tolerance for those who repeat mistakes that have already been made in this industry.

The wireless network providers are concerned about getting more of us to use data services and take advantage of the content that is available. Ringtones, wallpaper and even audio downloads are so yesterday while video is supposed to be the next big thing, but will it? No one knows for sure. There is no market research for where we are headed. Yes, we can conduct focus groups--we can design questions to get any answers you want to support whatever market research you want to believe. How do they come up with projections for how much a specific industry will be worth in five years? Is it a guess, based on the past, the result of focus groups or a little of each? Well, my experience tells me that those who try to project the future will be wrong more than right and will make assumptions that just won't hold up.

Let's go back in history to the Apple II computer. The two Steves were good, they designed a desktop computer that mere mortals could use, but it was Dan Bricklin and his Visicalc that was responsible for selling more Apple IIs and other desktop computers. That was because his application was perceived as having great value. It enabled a lot of us to play 'what if' and project the outcome in real numbers. The devices didn't sell Visicalc, the program sold the devices.

That was more than 25 years ago, which was before cellular and before wireless was anything but two-way radio and pagers, and it changed the world. Those of you in the content business today have the ability to change our wireless world as well. But to do so, you have to understand that it is not about making the desktop Internet wireless, it is about making the Internet smarter and easier to use on our wireless devices. Browsers are not what wireless is all about. Yes, iPhone customers use browsers more than any other group, but their numbers are small. Out of the nearly three billion wireless customers in the world, a couple million iPhone users mean very little.

So let me introduce you to my theme for this column: One of my business partners came up with the term "Active Content" in an article he wrote in 1999 and we are still waiting for it. What is Active Content? Here is an example: Today, on my phone, I have my Outlook calendar. There is an airline flight to Dallas in the morning and it is on my calendar, as is my Hertz reservation and my hotel address and confirmation number. If I want to check on my flight, to see if I have been upgraded or if the flight is on time, I have to quit my calendar, go to a web browser, enter the URL for American Airlines.com, sign in, select 'check flights,' and then re-enter the date and flight information that is sitting in my calendar. What I get back is a snapshot of the flight as it is at that moment.

But what if my calendar has a smart back-end? Hey, this is about smart devices on smart networks isn't it? My calendar would check on my flight from time to time, reporting on my upgrade request, the gate, delays and everything else that matters. Further, since I am flying to Dallas, I would see a weather icon on the calendar that tells me what the weather is like in Dallas. Meanwhile, my calendar and the smart back-end would see that I rented a Hertz car and will be going to a specific hotel and would download turn-by-turn directions for me. When I clicked on my appointment for the morning, I would have turn-by-turn directions waiting for me and I would have the latest information about the client I would be seeing. All this would be available to me without using a browser.

My column is about smart content, not simply content, and how to make it easy enough for mere mortals to use. It will benefit all of us--those who use the content, those who produce it and those who deliver it. I hope you will join me as I write not about the wireless Internet, but the Internet delivered smartly over wireless.

Andrew Seybold is an authority on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. A respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author and active participant in industry trade organizations, his views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for telecom, mobile computing and wireless industry leaders worldwide.