Year in Review 2010: Mobile commerce finally transitions from hype to reality

After roughly a decade of unsubstantiated hype and unrealized expectations, mobile commerce finally arrived in 2010, boosted by accelerating smartphone penetration, more robust networks and a wealth of consumer-friendly applications from retailers, banks, credit card providers and forward-thinking developers. A recent ABI Research survey spanning 2,000 consumer technology users across the U.S. indicates that close to half of smartphone owners have now used their phones for mobile shopping, or will soon; in addition, 53 percent use, or intend to use, their smartphones for mobile banking. Even 17 percent of non-smartphone users surveyed say they're using or planning to leverage mobile banking opportunities. In all, mobile shopping "warriors" (i.e., hyper-connected individuals) and "warrior wannabes" (moderately connected individuals) will account for $127 billion in consumer spending during the 2010 holiday season--representing 28 percent of the $447 billion the National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. consumers will spend over the period--according to a study published last month by research firm IDC.

For proof of mobile commerce's progress over the last 12 months, look no further than digital marketplace eBay: The company reports that Black Friday 2010 sales across its suite of mobile apps almost doubled over the previous year, while its Cyber Monday mobile sales jumped 146 percent year-over-year. eBay adds that its worldwide mobile initiatives remain on track to generate more than $1.5 billion in sales this year, nearly triple the $600 million the company reported in 2009; since the introduction of eBay's first mobile application in July 2008, on-the-go consumers have bought or sold nearly 30 million items.

The best is yet to come. In November, Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T) and T-Mobile USA formally announced Isis, a nationwide m-commerce network enabling subscribers in test markets to make point-of-sale purchases via mobile device. Trials are slated to begin in 2011. Carriers aren't the only ones throwing their considerable weight and influence behind m-commerce heading into the new year: This month, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) introduced Android 2.3, a.k.a. "Gingerbread," the first iteration of the Android mobile operating system to integrate Near Field Communications technologies. Google CEO Eric Schmidt first revealed the company's m-commerce aspirations last month, stating some future Android devices will contain NFC chips enabling users to "bump" their phone against participating retailers' point-of-sale technology, funding purchases without cash or credit. Expect the bets on m-commerce to keep getting bigger from here.